I know that there is no way to compete with the major sports networks in the compilation of statistics about the two teams playing in the super bowl. Instead I am going to focus on one feature, self-interest. Like many people, I have money in the stock market and I want my investments to make money next year. For this reason, I am an unqualified supporter of the Atlanta Falcons in the 2017 super bowl. The single data point I am using for my analysis is the fact that the falcons are an NFC Team, and when the NFC wins the stock market goes up. Go Falcons!
Correlation without Causation
Correlation does not imply causation is a common term in statistics and data analysis. It means that just because two variables move in relation to one another one does not mean that there is a cause and effect relationship between the two, even though it may seem like it. Just because when I washed my car it rained does not mean that I can control the precipitation patterns in the desert based on my propensity to visit the car wash. You may be thinking that having an NFC team win the super bowl and the stock market is an example of correlation without causation. After all the NFL does not control the world wide financial markets. If you look at the data though, 80% of the time the markets go up when the NFC wins. That is 50 years of data that supports that the winner does impact the market. Why might that be? Perhaps it follows Quantum Mechanics.
Observer Effect of Quantum Mechanics
When studying physics, specifically quantum mechanics researchers noticed that the observation changed the results. This is something commonly looked at when creating forecasts. Are the forecasts correct because the models are correct or because people believe them enough to make it happen. The superbowl winner impact on the stockmarket is well known. Perhaps it is for this reason that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This is the entire belief of many self-help ideas. If you believe it will happen, work to make it happen, it will happen. For whatever the reason, one cannot ignore 50 years of data.
Perhaps Patriots fans may think that I am pulling a lot of esoteric facts out of the air because I want the Patriots to lose. In all seriousness though, it is all about the data, and the observable effects of data knowledge. If you are watching the game and your team did not make the playoffs, and you are wondering who to root for because you do not care about the winner, perhaps this post helped you to decide.
Data aficionado et SQL Raconteur